import random
HIGH_ACTIVITY_RATE = 0.10
HIGH_ACTIVITY_INITIAL_INFECTION = 0.5
CONDOM_FAILURE_RATE = 0.01
class Player(object):
def __init__(self, id, activity, use_condom=False):
self.id = id
self.activity = activity
self.use_condom = use_condom
self.infected = False
self.history = []
self.conversion_day = None
class LowActivityPlayer(Player):
def __init__(self, id, activity, use_condom):
Player.__init__(self, id, activity, use_condom)
self.infected = False
class HighActivityPlayer(Player):
def __init__(self, id, activity, use_condom, infected):
Player.__init__(self, id, activity, False)
self.infected = infected
class Manager():
def __init__(self, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
self.low_activity = low_activity
self.high_activity = high_activity
self.transmission = transmission
self.players_count = players_count
self.days = days
self.use_condom = use_condom
random.seed()
self.pool = {}
self.hookup_queue = []
for id in range(self.players_count):
if id < self.players_count * HIGH_ACTIVITY_RATE:
infected = False
if id < self.players_count * HIGH_ACTIVITY_RATE * HIGH_ACTIVITY_INITIAL_INFECTION:
infected = True
player = HighActivityPlayer(id, self.high_activity, use_condom, infected)
else:
player = LowActivityPlayer(id, self.low_activity, use_condom)
self.pool[id] = player
def run(self):
for day in range(self.days):
self.hookup_queue = []
for player in self.pool.values():
if random.random() < player.activity:
self.hookup_queue.append(player)
while self.hookup_queue:
player_1 = player_2 = None
player_1 = random.choice(self.hookup_queue)
self.hookup_queue.remove(player_1)
if self.hookup_queue:
player_2 = random.choice(self.hookup_queue)
self.hookup_queue.remove(player_2)
if player_1 and player_2:
self.expose(player_1, player_2, day)
return self
def expose(self, player_1, player_2, day):
transmission = self.transmission
player_1.history.append(day)
player_2.history.append(day)
if player_1.infected or player_2.infected:
if player_1.use_condom or player_2.use_condom:
transmission *= CONDOM_FAILURE_RATE
infection = (random.random() < transmission)
if infection:
if not player_1.infected:
player_1.infected = True
player_1.conversion_day = day
if not player_2.infected:
player_2.infected = True
player_2.conversion_day = day
def trial(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
new_infections = 0.0
new_low_infections = 0.0
new_high_infections = 0.0
contacts = 0.0
low_contacts = 0.0
high_contacts = 0.0
for i in range(max_runs):
mgr = Manager(low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom).run()
for player in mgr.pool.values():
if isinstance(player, LowActivityPlayer):
if player.conversion_day:
new_low_infections += 1
low_contacts += len(player.history)
elif isinstance(player, HighActivityPlayer):
if player.conversion_day:
new_high_infections += 1
high_contacts += len(player.history)
else:
raise Exception("trial: invalid player %d", player.id)
contacts += len(player.history)
new_infections = new_low_infections + new_high_infections
avg_new_infections = new_infections/max_runs
avg_new_low_infections = new_low_infections/max_runs
avg_new_high_infections = new_high_infections/max_runs
avg_contacts = contacts/max_runs
avg_low_contacts = low_contacts/max_runs
avg_high_contacts = high_contacts/max_runs
risk_per_contact = avg_new_infections / avg_contacts
print "\t%-15.2f%-15.2f%-15.2f%-15.2f%-15.1f%-15.2f%-15.5f" %(low_activity, high_activity, \
avg_new_low_infections, avg_new_high_infections, avg_contacts, avg_new_infections, risk_per_contact)
def print_heading():
print "\t%-15s%-15s%-15s%-15s%-15s%-15s%-15s" %\
("Low_Activity", "High_Activity", "Low_Infects", "High_Infects", "Contacts", "New_Infects", "Risk" )
def test_landsburg(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
print "\t%s" % ("Landsburg: increase activity of low-activity players")
print
print_heading()
for i in range(6):
trial(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
low_activity += 0.01
print
print
def test_landsburg_condom(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
print "\t%s" % ("Landsburg w/ condoms: increase activity of low-activity players, use condoms")
print
print_heading()
for i in range(6):
trial(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
low_activity += 0.01
print
print
def test_kremer(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
print "\t%s" % ("Kremer: increase activity of low-activity players, decrease activity of high-activity players")
print
print_heading()
for i in range(6):
trial(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
low_activity += 0.01
high_activity -= 0.01
print
print
def test_commonsense(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom):
print "\t%s" % ("Commonsense: decrease activity of high-activity players")
print
print_heading()
for i in range(6):
trial(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
high_activity -= 0.01
print
print
def main():
max_runs = 100
low_activity = 0.01
high_activity = 0.1
transmission = 0.01
players_count = 1000
days = 1000
use_condom = False
test_landsburg(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
test_landsburg_condom(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, True)
test_kremer(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
test_commonsense(max_runs, low_activity, high_activity, transmission, players_count, days, use_condom)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
